EU Enlargement

Georgia receives candidate status

Moving further down on EU path, Georgian authorities need to fulfill nine recommendations. They are linked with the EU’s core values including human rights and the rule of law, as well as setting up the effective judicial system and fight against corruption. Recommendations are a reflection of the maladies that the Georgian democracy has been facing for several years. The European Council’s decision also has a geopolitical dimension. It committed to enlarging the South Caucasus. It also ensured that the distance between Georgia on the one hand and Ukraine and Moldova on the other is not growing. The heart of the so-called Trio Format of Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova still keeps on beating although feebly.

Georgia still needs to catch up with Ukraine and Moldova on the road to the EU accession. The next stage is opening accession negotiations but it has the prerequisites. Among others, the Georgia authorities need to ensure that general elections in autumn, 2024 are conducted in a free, fair, and competitive environment. This would be the maturity test for Georgia to move further down on EU path. On top of that, Georgian authorities have to address the endemic problem of elite corruption - establishing a strong track record of its investigation. EU also expects that the country establishes a system of extraordinary integrity checks for persons currently being at leading positions in the Georgian judiciary particularly at the High Council of Justice, Supreme Court, and court presidents. All those requirements are nothing new. The EU has been asking Georgia to do it already for several years. However, there was no political will. 

Whether the EU would keep the enlargement momentum still needs to be seen. It might get busy with internal issues in 2024. European Parliamentary elections are scheduled for June 2024. The tenure of the current “Geopolitical European Commission” being in office since 2019 is also reaching its end. Whether the new College of Commissioners would keep geopolitics at the heart of EU enlargement policy remains to be seen. Additionally, despite the fact that there are strong geopolitical arguments supporting the EU enlargement, public opinion does not keep pace. According to the latest opinion poll respondents in Austria (53%), Germany (50%), and France (44%) are most likely to hold the view that the EU should not pursue any immediate enlargement. In Romania, a majority (51%), and in Poland, a plurality (48%), believe the EU should be looking to add new member states. Another survey by Eurobarometer demonstrates that the support for immediate enlargement decreased since 2022 in 17 EU member states. The biggest fall is witnessed in Malta (-16%), Poland (-12%), Germany (-10%), Cyprus (-10%) and Czech Republic (-10%). However, the idea is still popular among youth between the ages of 15 to 24.

The last meeting of the European Council proved once again that thanks to Ukraine the EU enlargement is alive. If not for the resistance demonstrated by the Ukrainian armed forces against Russian invaders, neither Moldova nor Georgia would have the opportunity to get the candidate status or open accession talks so quickly. Thus EU enlargement policy would also depend on the performance of Ukrainian armed forces on the battlefields. On its hand, it depends on whether and how long the US and EU member states would manage to keep to come together on Ukraine. Putin is positioned for a long war with the hope that the Western support to Ukraine will drain allowing Russia to prevail. One should also recall that Hungary, being the ardent opposer of Ukraine for opening accession talks, is going to take the EU’s rotating presidency in the second half of 2024.   
Georgia received the EU candidate status within less than two years after submitting its application due to a window of opportunities. However, the next steps will heavily depend on Georgia’s own political will to take up reforms, while political developments in Europe and the world might reduce the EU's appetite for enlargement.