Asia — Global Trade Analysis

The View from Asia on U.S. Tariffs and Trade

With the generous support of FNF Malaysia, I joined six economists from across four continents on a global trade study tour of Washington D.C. and New York City. This piece explores U.S. tariffs and trade through an Asian and global lens — an essay recapping the tour from a predominantly American perspective.

Tariffs, Deals, and Divisive Impacts

With President Trump’s visit to Asia for context, where he signed several controversial trade agreements, including the U.S.–Malaysia Reciprocal Trade Agreement, the tour offered a timely opportunity to reflect on America’s changing trade posture. Experts we met broadly agreed that no country wins economically from Trump’s tariff-driven deals. Agreements forged under pressure lack reciprocity, trust, and long-term economic benefit. In Asia, Trump’s strategy of isolating nations for bilateral deals has exposed regional divisions — a stark contrast to the European Union’s unified approach.

While Asian nations face steeper tariffs, American businesses and consumers are not exempt from harm. Reduced export revenue in Asia diminishes demand for U.S. goods, undercutting any supposed gains. Many of these deals, often little more than performative memorandums of understanding, lack the enforceability and substance of modern trade treaties.

The regressive impacts of dealmaking and tariffs are also clear. Large firms and bigger nations can negotiate preferential terms with the White House, while smaller countries, businesses and poorer households lack the access and resources to soften the blow of higher prices. Within ASEAN, bigger economies such as Malaysia and Indonesia have pursued individual deals out of self-interest, leaving smaller neighbours behind and reinforcing inequality within the region.

Weakening Institutions and U.S. Influence

Beyond trade, the tour revealed how the Trump administration’s policies are undermining global institutions and aid frameworks. The U.S. has reduced contributions to the United Nations and other international agencies and has severely cut its foreign aid budget, limiting support for development, debt relief, and civil society initiatives — which is being felt across Southeast Asia. This retreat, coupled with a “trade not aid” narrative undermined by trade weaponisation, is eroding America’s standing as a global development partner.

The effects ripple through U.S. soft power. Once a symbol of leadership and partnership, America is now increasingly perceived as unreliable and self-serving. Even businesses from long-standing allies such as Germany express concern about America’s credibility as a trading partner.

(Mis)Understanding China and Asia

China featured in many of the Washington discussions — often as the central antagonist — yet Asia as a whole was strikingly absent from the American narrative. Despite China’s prominence in global trade, many U.S. experts we met displayed limited understanding of its internal complexity. This lack of “China literacy” is troubling, given its influence on U.S. foreign policy and regional stability. As I cautioned throughout the tour, engagement with China requires expertise grounded in real experience and nuance, not ideological reflexes.

In contrast to U.S. coercive trade diplomacy, many Asian nations continue to favour “win-win” agreements consistent with international norms. While China is not always a constructive actor, its relative consistency and predictability in trade policy compares increasingly favourably to Washington’s volatility.

Asia’s Economic Agency

Asia’s economic importance cannot be overstated. The region contributes over 30% of global GDP and 60% of global growth, accounting for one-third of global merchandise trade. Yet despite this strength, Asia’s geopolitical disunity leaves it vulnerable to external manipulation.

Still, there are positive trends. The recent conclusion of the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area 3.0 Upgrade Protocol and renewed momentum around the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) demonstrate growing confidence in intra-Asian cooperation — and a collective willingness to pursue trade partnerships independent of U.S. influence.

Towards Mutual Understanding

The study tour ultimately underscored the importance of dialogue, empathy, and informed perspectives in navigating today’s trade tensions. True prosperity depends not on coercion or tariffs but on rebuilding trust and openness.

As Asia asserts its agency in a shifting global order, both the region and the United States would benefit from a renewed commitment to understanding each other — and to keeping trade open, fair, and human-centered.

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*Dr. Stewart Nixon is the Deputy Director of Research for Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs (IDEAS), Malaysia