Baltic states

“The era of Russian energy manipulations is over”

On February 8, 2025, the Baltic states will take a historic step towards achieving full energy independence. On this day, they will disconnect from the Soviet-era BRELL energy ring, which linked energy systems of Belarus, Russia, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. This date will mark the final phase of the synchronisation process with the Continental European Network (CEN), integrating the Baltic electricity grids into the European grid system.

The synchronisation process with Europe is more than just a technical project; it is a key milestone in the broader European integration effort. The EU demonstrated its full solidarity in ensuring that the Baltic states' electricity systems would not remain under Russia's influence, providing both coordination and financial support throughout the process. This project is an integral part of the EU's Baltic Energy Market Interconnection Plan (BEMIP). The total budget for the synchronization project amounted to 1.6 billion euros, with 1.2 billion euros funded by the EU, showcasing the EU's strong support for the Baltic states' energy independence.

For decades, the Baltic states have been striving to free themselves from the constraints of the BRELL network, a relic of the Soviet Union. Since Lithuania, followed by Latvia and Estonia ceased importing electricity, gas, and oil from Russia, the electricity connection remained the last link to the Russian-controlled system, preventing full control of the region’s energy infrastructure.

To commemorate this historic moment, a symbolic clock was unveiled next to the Lithuania’s Energy Museum at the end of last year, counting down the time until the Baltic states achieve energy independence.

“The era of Russian energy manipulations is over”

When Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania joined the European Union and NATO in 2004, one crucial issue remained unresolved: the legacy of Soviet energy infrastructure. Despite their integration into European political and security structures, the energy sectors of the Baltic states remained heavily dependent on Russia. For nearly a decade after their EU accession, the Baltic states remained vulnerable due to their energy isolation from the rest of Europe, remaining as isolated energy islands.

The BRELL system, developed during the Soviet era, connected the energy grids of Belarus, Russia, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. The BRELL agreement, signed in 1998, kept the Baltic states’ energy systems synchronised with the Integrated Power System/United Power System (IPS/UPS) system, which was coordinated by a central dispatch in Moscow. Therefore, the dependency on this system posed a significant political and economical vulnerability to the Baltic states.

Using its dominant role in the energy sector, Russia continues to seek to undermine democratization processes and prevent countries from establishing their independence for many years. As Romas Švedas, former Vice-minister of Energy of Lithuania explained, after the closure of the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant, Lithuania’s energy system became 70-80% reliant on Russian supplies. This dependency made the country susceptible to potential political or economic leverage by Russia. In times of tension, Russia could easily disrupt energy supplies, whether by halting oil deliveries or interrupting gas flow.

For example, in 2006, the supply of oil through the Druzhba pipeline was disrupted when Lithuania sold its Mažeikiai refinery to Poland, rather than to Russia. Gas prices for Lithuania were set higher than for Western Europe due to the lack of alternative suppliers until the Klaipėda liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal began operations in 2014.

Therefore, the Baltic states have long worked towards achieving energy independence, and the disconnection from the BRELL network is the final step in this journey. The Lithuanian, Latvian and Estonian systems are scheduled to be disconnected from the Russian IPS/UPS system on February 8, 2025 and the first joint isolated operation test will begin, and their connection to the European synchronous area is scheduled for February 9.

The decision to disconnect from BRELL is a significant geopolitical and economic event, marking the end of Russian influence over Baltic energy. As Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys stated during his working visit to Latvia last month, “Lithuania was the first European country to refuse Russian oil and gas completely. Synchronization with the continental European electricity grids is a huge achievement for all Baltic States and a step towards better energy resilience. Together, we are an example of energy independence from Russia for Europe. The era of Russian energy manipulations is over.”

Russian Disinformation and Provocations: “We have to be prepared”

As the synchronisation date approaches, the Baltic states officials and experts warn of Russia’s disinformation campaigns and possible sabotage actions. Lithuania has strengthen the protection of its key energy facilities, which will now be guarded by the Public Security Service instead of private companies. NATO ships are also starting a mission in the Baltic Sea, patrolling ships that could damage power and communications cables.

Earlier this year, Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal from the liberal Estonian Reform Party said that Estonia must be prepared for a variety of situations relating to Russia's actions during disconnection from the Russian electricity grid and noted that Russia will likely continue its "relatively crude attacks" and attempts to destabilize democratic states.

According to the statement, issued by the Lithuanian State security department, most likely Russia will take active measures to discredit the Baltic States' decision to disconnect from the BRELL ring and attempt to influence public opinion regarding the stability and energy security of the Baltic States' energy sector. The State Security Department also warns that cyberattacks on energy sector companies are likely in the near future, and a possibility of kinetic actions targeting critical infrastructure cannot be ruled out. The risk of accidental damage to underwater infrastructure has also increased.

According to the National Crisis Management Center of Lithuania, the topic of the Baltic states disconnecting from the BRELL network has been actively used in Russian media since 2018. In recent months, however, these disinformation efforts have intensified. Russian propaganda seeks to spread panic, claiming that the synchronization with the European grid will lead to widespread power outages or systemic failures.

Authorities have debunked the most spread myths and reassured the public that all technical preparations for the synchronization are complete and that the process will proceed smoothly.

Up to 1 eur/month: “A price worth paying for independence and security"

Calculations conducted in all three Baltic states indicate that the synchronization project will not notably affect the overall cost of electricity services. The authorities note, that the impact of synchronisation on electricity prices is relatively small, as the main price drivers in the Baltic States are domestic generation, fuel prices, weather conditions and the availability of network infrastructure. According to calculations, the price of electricity for Lithuanian consumers would increase by an average of 50 cents per month (for an average consumption of 140 kWh), for Estonian consumers by 60 cents, and for Latvian consumers by about 1 euro. Speaking about this slight price difference, Estonia's Minister of Climate Yoko Alender emphasized: “This is the price worth paying for independence and security.'"

The disconnection from the BRELL network and the successful integration into the European energy market represents not only a technical achievement but also a symbolic victory over Russian influence. The Baltic states are now firmly aligned with European energy security structures, and their future energy resilience is assured. As European countries move towards greater energy autonomy, the Baltic states serve as an example of how political, economic, and technical efforts can overcome historical dependencies and political issues. The era of energy manipulation by Russia is over, and the Baltic states are now firmly integrated into the European energy landscape.