Presidential election in South Korea

Mistrust ahead of Power Change

If the progressive candidate Lee Jae-myung wins South Korea's presidential election as expected, he will face the difficult task of uniting a deeply divided country. Many South Koreans have reservations. Partners in the West are also skeptical.

South Korea's election campaign is short but intense. At seven o'clock in the morning, campaign workers stand at road junctions to convince commuters to vote for candidates. Even in the dark, campaigners shout their slogans from loudspeaker vans – a living democracy.

Six months earlier, South Korea had presented a very different picture. In December, former President Yoon Suk-yeol declared martial law due to alleged infiltration of the state by North Korean and pro-Chinese forces. Yoon did not provide any evidence. Military helicopters landed in front of parliament. Soldiers sealed off the democratic heart of Korea. Because MPs still managed to gain access and voted against martial law, the ordeal only lasted a few hours. But the political tremors are still reverberating. The martial law night was followed by impeachment, mass protests, political chaos and now, on June 3, new elections.

The clear favorite is Lee Jae-myung, the candidate of the progressive Democratic Party of Korea (DPK). Polls put him far ahead. The opposing candidate Kim Moon-soo from the conservative People Power Party (PPP) is hardly considered to have a chance. One reason for this is the split in the conservative camp. A right-wing fringe there believes in a communist-infiltrated republic, while more moderate voices do not.

The conservative nomination process was controversial and chaotic. Candidate Kim, who prevailed against more moderate voices, is considered a close confidant of the ousted president, from whom he has not clearly distanced himself despite his declaration of martial law. Now Kim not only has to mobilize the far right, he also has to appeal the center – an almost impossible balancing act.

But that's not all. There is another candidate courting conservative votes: Lee Joon-seok, founder of the Reform Party. He has no chance of winning, but he will take away a considerable proportion of the moderate-conservative votes. Lee has so far refused to cooperate with Kim - which weakens the conservative camp even further.

Controversial favorite

The Conservatives' problems make their political opponents happy: the Progressives. Their candidate Lee Jae-myung has an easier time in the election campaign. The parliamentarian presents himself as a defender of democracy and has the necessary images to do so. When he climbed over a parliamentary fence on the night of martial law to vote against tanks and for democracy inside, he filmed himself and streamed his action live on his social media accounts.

During the election campaign, Lee repeatedly criticized the conservative camp's ambiguous stance on former President Yoon and his record. The progressive Lee is positioning himself as a candidate of unity. After all, elections in South Korea are ultimately won in the middle – despite the strong polarization at the margins. Lee talks about "building a big tent" under which a broad social alliance can gather.

Lee comes from a poor background and has developed a power player image as a local politician. He is particularly popular among the working class and intellectual left. Whether he can really unite a deeply polarized country is questionable. Lee is also controversial and polarizing. In the past, he stirred up anti-Japanese resentment and was uncompromising on domestic policy. Under his leadership, the DPK blocked every piece of legislation proposed by the conservative government. However, in recent weeks Lee has noticeably changed his tone and moved more towards the political center in terms of content.

Many voters remain suspicious - not least because of private scandals and five ongoing legal proceedings. As mayor of the city of Seongnam, Lee is alleged to have been guilty of corruption and embezzlement, among other things. Another accusation is that he was involved in an illegal payment of millions of dollars to North Korea for an underwear brand in order to be invited to the North Korean capital Pyongyang. Lee's opponent called him a "gangster boss" during the election campaign.

The most advanced case is a trial for making false statements in the 2022 presidential election campaign. Lee has already been convicted, but he has appealed. The final verdict will probably not be reached until after the election – when Lee may already be president. Whether he will then enjoy immunity, is legally disputed . The issue will continue to occupy the public.

According to a survey by the online medium Dailian, more than 42% of the population would not vote for Lee under any circumstances. The fact that the progressives will probably still win the upcoming presidential election is also due to the divisiveness of his opponents. It also seems that many voters want to teach the conservatives a lesson for the martial law disaster.

Should Lee actually become president, he will have a parliamentary majority for his party. In contrast to former President Yoon, who was regularly blocked in parliament, Lee could govern with significantly more freedom. His conservative opponent Kim is already issuing exaggerated warnings of a "totalitarian regime", in which the legislative, executive and judicial branches would be in the hands of one party.

Content plays a subordinate role

As is so often the case in South Korea, the election campaign is characterized by personal attacks. When it comes to content, it is mostly about the economy. The situation is tense. Economists only expect growth of around one percent this year. The political crises have damaged consumer confidence, while exports are suffering from US President Donald Trump's aggressive tariff policy. In the long term, the ageing of society is slowing down the economy. Nowhere in the world do women have fewer children than in South Korea – on average only 0.75 children per woman. In Germany, which is not exactly child-rich either, the rate is almost twice as high.

Lee wants to boost the sluggish economy with government investment, particularly in the field of artificial intelligence and in structurally weak regions. The economic momentum is heavily concentrated in the Seoul metropolitan region, where real estate prices are exploding. In terms of energy policy, Lee does not want to build any more nuclear power plants and instead wants to focus on renewable energies. He wants South Korea to phase out coal-fired power generation by 2040. He also aims to strengthen workers' rights.

Kim, on the other hand, is in favor of deregulation and tax cuts – a classic economic liberal course, as President Yoon had also advocated. In terms of energy policy, he is backing nuclear power. But regardless of who wins, a revolution in economic policy is unlikely. Both camps are fundamentally pro-business and strive to ensure stable framework conditions for the country's large industrial groups, such as Hyundai and Samsung.

A friend of Russia and China?

There could be a slight change of course in foreign policy under Lee. President Yoon had brought South Korea much closer to the USA and NATO, improved relations with Japan and clearly positioned itself against Russia. South Korea joined Western sanctions, supported Ukraine financially and with non-lethal material - and indirectly became one of the most important ammunition suppliers for Kiev via a triangular deal with the USA.

Lee, on the other hand, questions this clear commitment to the West. He also emphasizes the alliance with the USA as the foundation of security policy. At the same time, however, he points to the need to stabilize relations with China and Russia. He refers to the so-called Northern Policy of conservative President Roh Tae-woo in the 1990s, inspired by Willy Brandt's German Ostpolitik. At that time, South Korea established diplomatic relations with Moscow and Beijing – also in order to bring movement into the dialog with North Korea.

Rapprochement with North Korea

The progressive Lee argues that the aggressive line taken by conservative ex-president Yoon towards Pyongyang has failed. In addition, support for Ukraine has angered Russia – which is now leading to Moscow cooperating more closely with North Korea. In reality, Russia was primarily looking for a willing supplier of ammunition.

Lee may also be more pragmatic towards Japan as president than he was during his time in opposition. He criticized former President Yoon's policy of rapprochement as humiliating and submissive in order to fish for votes in the parliamentary elections. But the ploy is becoming less effective. Many young South Koreans today show much less interest in a confrontational stance towards Japan. In addition, economic and security cooperation with Tokyo is becoming increasingly important in view of the threat posed by North Korea and China. Lee has recently been much more moderate here too.

Lee is planning a rapprochement with North Korea. Whether this works is not in his hands – North Korea must also show interest. Relations are currently at a low point. During Yoon's presidency, North Korea's ruler Kim Jong Un officially abandoned the goal of peaceful reunification and instead branded South Korea the "main enemy". In view of the support from Russia, North Korea currently has no need for contacts with South Korea or America. Most recently, Lee also dampened hopes of a rapprochement. While a summit between South and North Korea is supposed to take place soon, this is hardly possible in the current situation.

Frederic Spohr heads the office of the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom in Seoul, Korea.
Zeynep Gezen is currently completing an internship there and is studying Korean Studies at the FU Berlin.