Argentina

Milei triumphs in Congress elections in Argentina – Clear mandate for further reforms

Argentinians clearly backed their president Javier Milei in Sunday's congress elections. With 41% of the vote, his party, La Libertad Avanza, was well ahead of the Peronist Fuerza Patria, which received 32%. The result was significantly better than the pre-election polls and amounts to a triumph for Milei. In some provinces in the interior of the country – Mendoza, Entre Ríos, San Luis – La Libertad Avanza even managed to exceed 50%.

Milei will have a blocking minority in Congress in the future

In the National Assembly, the lower house, La Libertad Avanza will thus hold 93 of 257 seats from December 10, and in the Senate, the upper house, it will hold 20 of 72 seats.

The Argentinians clearly wanted to avoid a blockade in Congress, which would have been likely if Milei had failed to achieve his minimum goal of a blocking minority. To do so, he needed a third of the seats in the National Assembly, which he clearly achieved.

Voters clearly had no desire to return to Peronist policies, which were responsible for the country's disastrous economic record and political crisis until 2023. Despite compulsory voting, turnout was only 69%. Voters disappointed by Milei did not vote for the Peronists; they simply stayed home.

The province election in Buenos Aires in early September had been a lesson for Milei due to his political mistakes, in particular his half-hearted investigation of corruption allegations against his close circle, including his sister and key advisor Karina. However, this defeat in the provincial election had no consequences for the congress election at the national level. This time, La Libertad Avanza even had a slight lead in the province.

Milei has a clear mandate from voters to continue with reforms

Milei now has a clear mandate from voters to continue, in consensus with other reform forces, with the stabilization and reform course for a successful future for the country and the Argentine people.

In his speech on election night, Milei's relief at the election success was evident. He came across as presidential, constructive, and conciliatory—by his standards—and announced that he would seek majorities in Congress for necessary reforms and also work more closely with the governors, who are important in federal Argentina. The fact that there is a good chance of this happening is demonstrated not only by Milei's strengthened position after the elections, but also by the immediate congratulations he received from former President Mauricio Macri, chairman of the conservative PRO party.

Markets react euphorically

The markets reacted euphorically to the election results on Monday. The stock market opened more than 20% higher, country risk fell from over 1000 to around 600 basis points, and the peso gained 10% against the dollar. This gives hope that the market turmoil of recent weeks is over for now. The financial support promised by US President Trump to Milei during his visit to the White House on October 14 should – if still necessary – contribute to this. Trump had made his support conditional on Milei winning the congress elections, so that any doubts about his support should now be dispelled, which is further reassuring the markets. Trump was among the first international leaders to congratulate Milei on election night. The reduced political and market risk should also significantly improve the conditions for foreign investment.

Milei must seize the opportunity

Milei now has the opportunity to “Make Argentina Great Again” until the next presidential election in 2027 – the name of the reform plan he presented before the elections for the second half of his term in office. He now only has to use his increased room for maneuver – by building consensus with other reform forces, focusing on the country's economic development, and acting with personal transparency.