NATO Summit 2025

Summit in The Hague Marks Historic Spending Pledge amid Transatlantic Uncertainty

The NATO summit in The Hague this week marked a turning point for the alliance, with a significant increase in defense spending commitments and shifting dynamics in the transatlantic partnership. While the summit was largely billed as a moment of unity, it was shaped by subdued messaging on Ukraine, tensions in the Middle East, and a calibrated effort by European leaders to maintain alignment with a more transactional U.S.

Defense Spending Commitments: The Hague Defense Investment Plan

At the core of the summit was the unveiling of a new NATO defense spending target: 5% of GDP annually by 2035. This target marks a substantial increase from the previous 2% guideline, and is divided into two major components:

• 3.5% for core defense capabilities — including military hardware, troops, and ammunition.
• 1.5% for broader defense-related investments — such as cybersecurity, infrastructure, and innovation.

The push for the 5% target came heavily from President Donald Trump, who framed it as a personal achievement and was widely credited with securing the pledge. Despite ongoing concerns about U.S. reliability under Trump, he received public praise from NATO leaders and summit media — a stark contrast to the criticism he faced during his first presidency. However, the new pledge was not universally embraced. Spain outright rejected the 5% benchmark, while Belgium and Slovakia sought exemptions. In response, Trump warned that Spain could face trade tariffs, even though such bilateral penalties would violate EU trade rules. The summit itself was notably scaled back — brief sessions and a short joint declaration — in what many interpreted as a gesture to accommodate Trump’s preferences. European leaders leaned on flattery and concessions to maintain a working relationship with the U.S. president. This widespread attitude reflected the sense of urgency felt by the military alliance, brought about by a shifting international political environment. While opinions may differ on whether the alliance’s approach to President Trump is commendable, it is evident that they have learned how to effectively engage with him and secure his agreement.

Merz called his first summit “historic”

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz attended the summit for the first time. He made a point of emphasizing that the pledge to increase defense spending was driven by principle rather than pressure. “We are not making the decisions… to do anyone a favour,” Merz said. Still, he joined other leaders in partly accrediting President Trump: “It was only this U.S. administration — in combination with the war in Ukraine — that prompted us to decide what we decided today.” In remarks to the German parliament ahead of the summit, Merz confirmed that Germany would suspend its constitutional debt rules to enable €153 billion in defense spending by 2029, including €8.3 billion earmarked for Ukraine.

Alliance Unity and Article 5 Commitments

Despite the financial commitments, doubts lingered over the alliance’s core security guarantee: Article 5, the collective defense clause. President Trump was notably vague when pressed on the U.S. commitment. “Depends on your definition” of Article 5, he said, while also asserting a broader commitment to “being their friends” and to “life and safety.” The ambiguity is notable, given the clause’s foundational role. Trump’s "America First" rhetoric again dominated his interactions with allies, who appeared more resigned to adapting rather than pushing back.

Reduced Focus on Ukraine and Unclear U.S. Commitment

Ukraine — long the centrepiece of recent NATO summits — received markedly less attention in The Hague. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy kept a low profile compared to previous summits. He met privately with Trump, but the conversation was closed to the press, and no joint statement followed. The Trump administration made no new aid commitments, and with remaining Biden-era funds dwindling, questions about continued U.S. support remain open.

Trump’s only comment on the matter was non-committal: “We’ll see.”

In contrast, NATO’s official communications reaffirmed support for Ukraine. The alliance highlighted that €35 billion in aid has already been pledged in 2025 and reiterated Ukraine’s long-term path toward NATO membership — though no concrete steps were taken to advance accession.

Middle East Conflict Overshadowing the Agenda

The summit unfolded under the shadow of escalating tensions in the Middle East, where a tentative ceasefire between Israel and Iran had just been brokered following U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Trump boasted that Iranian sites were “obliterated,” although U.S. intelligence has since indicated the damage may only be temporary. Both Trump and NATO Secretary General Rutte emphasized the ceasefire’s significance, though uncertainty surrounding the region’s stability remains high. The conflict dominated media coverage and summit discussions, injecting urgency and distraction into a meeting already wrestling with questions of alliance cohesion and future threats.

A Transatlantic Partnership in Flux

The Hague summit underscored NATO’s enduring relevance — but also its growing pains amid a shifting international environment. While the alliance achieved a historic and much needed breakthrough in defense spending, the broader picture is one of accommodation, uncertainty, and strategic recalibration. As Europe, steps up militarily, its leaders are also learning to navigate a more transactional transatlantic relationship. Whether the alliance emerges stronger or more fractured will depend not just on following through with the pledge to increase defense spending — but on whether they still see their security as truly shared.