NEWSLETTER
From Poland with Love. May
Topic of the Month
From Hooligan to President: Karol Nawrocki Narrowly Wins Poland's Election
Karol Nawrocki has won Poland's presidential election by the slimmest margin in the country's history, securing 50.89% of the vote. His rival, Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, representing Donald Tusk's ruling Civic Coalition, garnered 49.11%. Initial exit polls, announced at 9 p.m. on June 1, had predicted a narrow Trzaskowski victory by 0.6 percentage points, prompting him to declare himself the winner prematurely.
Ultimately, Nawrocki prevailed by just 369,591 votes. Voter turnout reached 71.63%, with Trzaskowski winning in 10 of Poland's provinces and Nawrocki in 6.
In the first round of voting, Trzaskowski led with 31.36%, followed by Nawrocki with 29.54%. A key development was the unexpectedly strong showing of far-right candidates: Sławomir Mentzen came third with 14.8%, and ultra-conservative nationalist Grzegorz Braun secured 6.3%.
Left-wing candidates collectively performed respectably, matching their share from the 2023 general election. Adrian Zandberg of the Together Party led the progressive bloc, followed by Magdalena Biejat from the governmental left. Notably, Joanna Senyszyn, who built her campaign around viral internet memes, gained traction among young female voters and secured 1.09%.
The biggest disappointment for centrist voters was Speaker of the Sejm Szymon Hołownia, who received only 4.99%, casting doubt on the future of his Poland 2050 party's alliance with the conservative PSL. Their coalition is now polling below the parliamentary threshold.
The most intense electoral battle centered on courting Mentzen’s voters. Mentzen hosted both candidates on his YouTube channel, presenting an eight-point manifesto that included pledges to oppose Ukraine’s NATO accession and EU federalization. Nawrocki fully embraced the platform, signing all points. Trzaskowski, by contrast, took a more measured stance, identifying both shared goals and fundamental disagreements. Their post-debate appearance at a pub with Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski became a symbolic image of the campaign, but ultimately only about 12% of Mentzen’s supporters voted for Trzaskowski in the second round.
Mobilization and Fear as Campaign Strategies
Both campaigns focused heavily on voter mobilization. The first-round turnout of 64% was a record for a presidential first round, though still lower than the 73% seen in the 2023 parliamentary elections. Trzaskowski’s campaign aimed to mobilize the 2.5 million government coalition supporters who did not back any presidential candidate in the first round—but that effort proved only partially successful.
Fear became a central campaign tool. Nawrocki’s backers stoked anxieties over immigration, LGBTQ+ rights, and potential military involvement in Ukraine. Jarosław Kaczyński warned that a Trzaskowski presidency would result in “closing the system” and handing unchecked power to Tusk’s team. Trzaskowski’s camp, meanwhile, used Nawrocki himself as a warning symbol—an approach made easier by a steady stream of damaging revelations.
Controversies Surrounding Nawrocki
Nawrocki has faced numerous allegations regarding his past. He is accused of maintaining ties with individuals involved in organized crime, including neo-Nazi-affiliated motorcycle gangs, stemming from his earlier involvement in boxing and community programs in Gdańsk. He denies any wrongdoing, stating his interactions were professional, such as in prison resocialization programs and sports clubs.
He has also faced criticism over a real estate transaction involving an elderly man, with some calling it exploitative. Further accusations include facilitating prostitution during his tenure as a security guard at the Grand Hotel in Sopot. Former colleagues have reportedly offered to testify.
Nawrocki’s participation in a 70-on-70 football hooligan brawl—confirmed by his campaign—also raised eyebrows, particularly as these events occurred while he was working for the Institute of National Remembrance (IPN).
His tenure as IPN president is under investigation by the Supreme Audit Office (NIK) for alleged misuse of public funds totaling approximately 15.4 million PLN (~€3.7 million). Former employees claim he retaliated against whistleblowers and misused his position for political purposes, in violation of the institution’s apolitical mandate.
Veterans of Poland’s anti-communist opposition have also condemned Nawrocki’s politicization of the IPN during the campaign.
International Dimensions and Polarization
Nawrocki’s campaign culminated in Poland's first Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), a flagship event of the U.S. MAGA movement. U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, a key Trump ally, endorsed Nawrocki and criticized Trzaskowski as "an absolute train wreck of a leader." Noem called for a return to conservative values in Europe.
Republican U.S. lawmakers accused the European Commission of favoring Trzaskowski, expressing concern about electoral bias in a letter to Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Meanwhile, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán supported Nawrocki, while Romanian president-elect Nicusor Dan endorsed Trzaskowski during a pro-EU rally in Warsaw.
International observers from the OSCE concluded that the election was professionally conducted but noted significant concerns over media bias, social divisions, and a lack of campaign finance transparency. The sole televised debate was described as chaotic and poorly moderated.
Voter Demographics and Behavior
Among Mentzen’s supporters who voted in the second round, 87.2% chose Nawrocki; Braun's voters supported Nawrocki by an even larger margin—92.6%. By contrast, Trzaskowski won the support of 85.4% of Hołownia voters, 83.5% of Zandberg voters, and 88.3% of Biejat voters.
Nawrocki won majorities among younger voters: 53.2% in the 18–29 age group and 54% among 30–39-year-olds. Trzaskowski held slight leads in the 40–49 (52.1%) and 50–59 (50.6%) demographics. Among voters aged 60 and above, Nawrocki again had a narrow edge (51%). Trzaskowski secured the women’s vote (52.8%), while 55.5% of men voted for Nawrocki.
A President Ready for Conflict
Nawrocki has pledged to obstruct the Tusk government, vowing to block its legislative agenda, including judicial reforms and abortion rights expansion. He has also indicated a desire to provoke early parliamentary elections.
German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier congratulated Nawrocki, expressing hope for continued cooperation and emphasizing the importance of strong German-Polish relations for a resilient Europe.
Commentators argue that Trzaskowski lost primarily due to his affiliation with the ruling government, which voters used the presidential election to punish. Nawrocki’s positioning as a non-partisan, anti-establishment figure helped weaken the long-standing KO–PiS duopoly.
What’s Next?
In response to the outcome, Prime Minister Donald Tusk has announced a vote of confidence in his government, scheduled for June 11. PiS and the far-right Confederation have declared they will vote against it. Jarosław Kaczyński has floated the idea of an expert-led government, while Confederation proposed a transitional government led by a PSL politician.
Tusk has indicated openness to cooperation with the new president but is also preparing a "Plan B" should Nawrocki block key initiatives. A major government reshuffle is expected, with rumors suggesting that Justice Minister Adam Bodnar may be replaced by Roman Giertych, a more combative figure.
Economy
Europe’s Biggest Logistics Hub
Prime Minister Donald Tusk has announced new investments in the Sławków railway terminal to build "the largest logistics hub in Europe." According to the Polish government, after the war in Ukraine ends, this terminal will become a key transshipment center for goods from all over Asia. Sławków is located at the intersection of the westernmost broad-gauge and standard-gauge railway lines, which facilitates the transshipment of containers transported by rail between the Far East and Asia and Western Europe via Ukraine. It is already the EU’s most important overland link for freight arriving from the east.
"I will say without any exaggeration that here, in Sławków in Silesia, Poland, we will have the largest logistics hub of this type in Europe. It is not only about breaking records, it will also be a golden deal for Poland," Tusk said. The hub involves investments in the existing terminal's infrastructure, which will allow it to double its transshipment capacity to over 500,000 containers per year. Poland plans to invest €1 billion, involving the Polish Industrial Development Agency.
“When we talk about rebuilding Ukraine, we are not only talking about the need to help Ukrainians after the war, but also about the interests of Poland,” Tusk commented. “We are developing this logistical heart of Europe so that the billions of zlotys that the world will spend on rebuilding Ukraine can remain here in Poland,” he concluded.
Train to the Adriatic Sea
This summer, Polish national railway carrier PKP Intercity will launch a new direct train service from Warsaw to Rijeka, Croatia – a response to the great, more eco-friendly popularity of Croatia as a holiday destination among Polish travelers. The new route offers a travel alternative, with ticket prices starting at around 200 PLN (ca. EUR 45). Trains will operate four times a week.
The route spans over 1,200 kilometers and passes through five countries, including stops in Vienna and Ljubljana. This international connection is the result of close cooperation between national railway operators from Poland, the Czech Republic, Austria, Slovenia, Croatia, and Hungary. The project involved transport ministries from all countries along the route.
Plans for establishing a rail connection between Croatia and Poland have been under discussion since 2021, but the project was delayed due to complications arising from the Covid-19 pandemic. Originally, private Czech RegioJet company was interested in establishing this connection.
Cut of NBP Interest Rate
Poland’s central bank, the National Bank of Poland (NBP), has cut its main interest rate by 50 basis points—from 5.75% to 5.25%. This is the first rate cut since October 2023 and comes as inflation continues to slow and economic growth weakens.
The NBP began raising rates in late 2021 to fight high inflation, which peaked at 17.9% in October 2022. Rates reached a high of 6.75% in August 2023.
Inflation has since cooled significantly. In April 2024, it was 4.2% year-on-year, down from 4.9% in March. The central bank’s target is 2.5%, with a 1-point margin. Wage growth is also slowing. In March, corporate sector wages rose by 7.7% year-on-year—the fourth straight month of sub-10% growth, down from 16% in mid-2022.
European Affairs
Historic Treaty
France and Poland have signed a new cooperation and friendship treaty with a defence clause committing the parties to mutual support in case of an attack by an aggressor. "In case of armed aggression on their territory, the parties assist each other, including through military means," stipulates the publicly released text. Symbolically, the ceremony took place during the 80th-anniversary commemorations of the end of World War II. "This is a new page (...). This treaty commits us to irreversible solidarity," emphasized French President Emmanuel Macron.
While the agreement includes cooperation in economy, agriculture and science, both countries consider its military dimension central. "It does not substitute for NATO or EU," President Emmanuel Macron said, "reinforces what already exists today." "Everyone learns from history (...). I am profoundly convinced (...) that France and Poland will be able to count on each other in all circumstances, good and bad," commented Prime Minister Donald Tusk. He also announced that a similar document would soon be signed with the United Kingdom.
Now, Franco-Polish bilateral cooperation is to be elevated to the level Paris has so far maintained only with three other biggest EU states. France has signed strategic treaties of friendship and cooperation with Germany (the Élysée Treaty of 1963 and the Aachen Treaty of 2019), Italy (the Quirinal Treaty of 2021), and Spain (the Barcelona Treaty of 2023).
The treaty was signed in the French city of Nancy. This location also holds historical significance. It was once home to the King of Poland and Duke of Lorraine, Stanisław Leszczyński. The ceremony was enthusiastically welcomed by the residents, including many of Polish origin.
In Favor of the Reinterpretation of ECHR
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has joined eight other EU member states in calling for the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) to be reinterpreted to allow for policy changes on migration. It was also signed by leaders from Denmark, Italy, Austria, Belgium, Czechia, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. "It is important to assess whether, in some cases, the court has over-extended the scope of the convention compared to its original intentions, thus altering the balance between the interests to be protected," they wrote.
The nine argue that the European Court of Human Rights has extended the scope of the Convention too far. Italian PM Giorgia Meloni commented that they want to open a political debate on the capacity of the convention “a few decades after they were written, to address the great issues of our time, starting precisely with the issue of the migration phenomenon.”
Co-signatories outlined some concrete changes they would like to see, including having greater freedom to decide when to expel foreign nationals and having the ability to take effective action against "hostile states that seek to use our values and rights against us... by instrumentalising migrants at our borders." They also want the exploitation of migrants by hostile states to be addressed.
In response, the Secretary General of the Council of Europe has warned against “weakening” the convention and “politicising” the Strasbourg court that is tasked with interpreting and upholding it.
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The Sejm has agreed to extend the temporary restriction on the right to file an application for international protection at the border with Belarus. The government made the request. There were 366 deputies in favor of the extension, 17 against (Left and Together Party). No one abstained, but as many as 77 did not vote. The restriction, which has been in effect since March 27, was introduced in an effort to counter human smuggling in the “hybrid war.” The regulation allows non-acceptance of applications for international protection, excluding so-called “vulnerable groups." Social organizations once again point out that the law is unconstitutional and incompatible with international law.
Politics
Millions for the Church
The Speaker of the Sejm Szymon Hołownia presented a report by the Supreme Audit Office (NIK) on state financial support for the Church, which he commissioned a year ago. It shows that between 2021 and 2023, the state transferred PLN 17.5 billion (ca. EUR 4,12 billion) to churches and religious associations. 95% of these funds, i.e. PLN 16.5 billion (ca. EUR 3,9 billion), went to the Catholic Church and organizations associated with it.
The report states that the Church Fund – the symbol of the state support for the church in the Polish political debate - which pays for priests' social security, accounts for less than 4% of these expenses. PLN 2.5 billion (ca. EUR 600 million) is spent on subsidies for the maintenance of historic churches, but, for example, PLN 100 million (EUR 23 million) was spent by the Prime Minister's Office outside of competitions. PLN 2 billion (almost EUR 500 million) went to subsidize schools run by churches, and over billion went to universities run by churches. Nearly PLN 6 billion (EUR 1.4 billion) went to salaries for catechists and PLN 176 million (EUR 61 million) went to salaries for chaplains. "Some of this money, of course, went to worthy causes, but the question is whether Father Rydzyk received hundreds of millions of this money, and if so, how is it possible for the prime minister to distribute money without competitive bidding? All of this must be clarified," commented Rafał Trzaskowski, then KO candidate for president. Father Rydzyk is an infamous priest-businessman, who owns a network of radical right-wing media and other businesses, e.g. geothermal investments.
NIK pointed out the lack of proper supervision over the Church Fund. Between 2021 and 2023. The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Administration did not have information about the affiliation of the clergy reported to specific churches. “In the opinion of the NIK, this may create room for abuse in the form of unauthorized persons using the Fund financing, which is confirmed by the results of investigations and audits of contribution payers conducted by ZUS,” the Supreme Audit Office wrote.
At the end of March 2025, the Left proposed a bill providing for the liquidation of the Church Fund. According to the proposal, the costs of social security contributions for clergy would be divided equally – half would be covered by the clergy and the other half by the Church as the employer. The reform would involve introducing a more transparent, “employee-oriented” insurance model, in which the Church would have specific obligations as an employer.
Both the Civic Coalition and Polska 2050 have been talking about the liquidation of the Church Fund for a long time, nothing has happened in this matter. Many blame the head of the special team that was supposed to oversee the reform of the Fund, the chairman of the conservative PSL party and Deputy Prime Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, for the lack of action.
International Affairs
Russian Sabotage
Poland summoned the Russian ambassador and said it would close the Russian consulate in Kraków after evidence showed Moscow was responsible for a massive fire that almost completely destroyed a Warsaw shopping centre in 2024 (read more in the May 2024 edition of the newsletter). The fire completely destroyed ca. 1,400 businesses it housed, most of them owned by members of the Vietnamese community.
The Polish and Lithuanian authorities have been cooperating in investigations into many cases of sabotage. This common work led to terrorism charges being issued in Poland against a Belarusian man accused of carrying out an earlier arson attack in the Polish capital on behalf of Russia. Over the last year, there have been multiple acts of sabotage, cyberattacks, and disinformation that Poland claims were carried out by foreign agents – often coming from Belarus or Ukraine – acting on behalf of Moscow.
"Due to evidence that it was the Russian secret services that carried out the reprehensible act of sabotage against the Marywilska shopping center, I have decided to withdraw my authorization for the activity of the Russian consulate in Kraków," Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski said. "I have a message for Russian authorities: we know what you are doing, we don't accept it and we are taking the appropriate measures," he added.
Russia denied any involvement in the arson attack and accused Poland of Russophobia. Russia's Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that "Warsaw continues to deliberately undermine relations, acting against the interests of its citizens." "An adequate response to these inadequate steps will follow shortly," she concluded. Last October Poland said it would shut the Russian consulate in the western Polish city of Poznań due to suspected Russian attempts at sabotage. Russia retaliated by closing the Polish consulate in St. Petersburg.
Russia still has a consulate in Gdańsk and an embassy in Warsaw.
Poland & Germany
Merz in Warsaw
Germany’s new Chancellor Friedrich Merz kicked off his term with lightning trips to Paris and Warsaw. In Poland, he held talks with Prime Minister Donald Tusk. “For me, it is not just a natural duty but also a personal priority to come to Poland immediately after being elected Federal Chancellor,” commented Merz. The visit was much expected in hopes to revive the Weimar Triangle and repair rather cold recent bilateral relations. During the term of the former Chancellor from SPD, Olaf Scholz, relations soured and new points of disagreement appeared on a regular basis.
Merz and Tusk discussed issues of importance to the European Union, pressing international issues, defence and security, as well as German-Polish relations. Remembrance and commemoration were among the most sensitive topics. Merz promised the rapid construction of a monument to the victims of Nazi aggression in Berlin. Probably the most commented-on part in Poland of the common press conference was a declaration to connect Warsaw with Berlin (and Brussels) with high-speed train. "I am glad that five minutes were enough for us today to tell each other that high-speed rail should connect our countries and, more broadly, Europe," Tusk said. Currently, it takes ca. 6 hours to travel by railroad between the two capitals. Such a connection also has a significant security dimension.
Both leaders emphasized it is fundamental to keep Europe united, defend it, and shape its future jointly, said Merz, adding that he honoured Poland’s tremendous efforts to strengthen deterrence and defence capabilities. At the same time, he promised that Germany, too, would invest hundreds of millions of euros in defence. “It is not easy, considering history, to say out loud, as a Polish prime minister, that I would very much like Germany to arm itself faster and more intensively," Tusk said. “Armed Germany in Poland is not a popular slogan, but fortunately today we live in times when there is a different Germany, a different Poland, different threats.”
The topic that soured the good atmosphere of the joint press conference was migration. Merz declared Berlin would work with Warsaw on a solution towards "the common goal to drastically lower irregular migration," but he earlier announced his administration would tighten border controls. Tusk responded that Poland would not accept any illegal migrants being sent onto its territory. "Germany will let into its territory whom it wants. Poland will only let in those whom it accepts," he declared. He also criticized Merz’s intention to tighten German border controls, arguing that such moves could trigger reciprocal measures from Poland.
Culture
New President of the European Writers’ Council
Grażyna Plebanek, a Polish novelist and screenwriter, has been elected president of the European Writers' Council (EWC). The European Writers’ Council (EWC) is a federation of 50 writers’ and translators’ associations from 32 countries, representing over 220,000 professional authors working in 35 languages.
Plebanek began her career as a journalist, writing columns for Reuters and Poland’s most influential newspaper Gazeta Wyborcza. Plebanek debuted in 2002 with Pudełko ze szpilkami (Box of Stilettos), a novel that subverts the traditional romance genre by focusing on a woman's relationship with herself rather than a romantic partner. Now she is a bestselling Polish female author, who publishes her works in Polish, English, French, and Dutch. Her novel Illegal Liaisons is available in English.
Polls & Trends
Presidential elections. Full results of the I round
Rafał Trzaskowski 31,36%
Karol Nawrocki 29,54%
Sławomir Mentzen 14,81%
Grzegorz Braun 6,34%
Szymon Hołownia 4,99%
Adrian Zandberg 4,86%
Magdalena Biejat 4,23%
Krzysztof Stanowski 1,24%
Joanna Senyszyn 1,09%
Marek Jakubiak 0,77%
Artur Bartoszewicz 0,49%
Maciej Maciak 0,19%
Marek Woch 0,09%
Party Support
IBRiS for tvn24.pl, 29.05.2025
Civic Coalition 33,4%
PiS 32,2%
Confederation 17,1%
Third Way 6%
Left 5%
Together 2,5%