Elections
Electoral Insights for 2025: Key Lessons from the 2024 Election Cycle
The year 2024 was a super-electoral year, with voters in over 60 countries heading to the polls and nearly half of the world’s population participating in elections. For nations preparing for pivotal contests in 2025—including Australia, Germany, Romania, and Poland—the lessons of 2024 are invaluable for preserving support for parties committed to democratic values.
In an increasingly unpredictable world, marked by heightened great power competition, elections have become less about expressing hope and presenting positive visions for the future and more about venting grievances, anger, and frustration. In democratic countries, this shift has intensified a negativity bias, where political accomplishments fade into the background, and negative events dominate voter perceptions. As we enter 2025, democratic politicians must internalize at least five critical lessons distilled from the electoral dynamics of 2024.
2024 was the ultimate election year around the world: National elections were scheduled or expected in at least 64 countries, as well as the European Union, which all together represent almost half the global population.
1. The Anti-Incumbency Trend
The wave of anti-incumbency witnessed in 2024 cannot be ignored. Incumbents face an uphill battle in defining the narrative and stakes of elections. While it is essential to highlight accomplishments, triumphalism often backfires in the current political climate. Instead, authenticity and genuine connections with voters are key. Politicians must acknowledge shortcomings candidly, signaling a willingness to listen and adapt. This approach can bridge the gap between the leadership and the electorate, fostering trust even in turbulent times.
2. Strategizing Against Populism
Populism remains a potent force, and mainstream politicians must develop nuanced strategies to counter it. This involves borrowing what resonates with voters from populist platforms—such as prioritizing the concerns of ordinary people—while refusing to normalize divisive rhetoric or policies. The challenge lies in depriving populists of their "fuel." Centering politics around the needs of voters, reframing key issues, and avoiding imitation are crucial. As history shows, voters tend to prefer the original populist message over a watered-down copy. Tackling populism requires strategic thinking, trial and error, and a deliberate effort to redefine debates on terms that reflect democratic values.
3. Balancing Economic and Cultural Concerns
The interplay of economic and cultural concerns has reshaped political landscapes. We are well beyond unidimensional politics focused solely on left-right economic debates. Today, economic issues frequently intersect with cultural wars and identity politics, which are more emotionally charged and mobilizing. However, as the adage goes, “it’s the economy, stupid.” A key takeaway from elections like the US contest in 2024 is that successful campaigns often intertwine economic concerns—such as the cost of living—with cultural issues like immigration. Winning elections in 2025 will require abandoning unidimensional thinking and striking the right balance between bread-and-butter issues and identity concerns. Achieving this balance hinges on a deep understanding of context and anticipating the trajectory of debates.
4. Rethinking International Politics
In today’s interconnected world, domestic and international politics are inseparable. Leaders must view international engagement not merely as a liability or a source of blame—as often happens with institutions like the European Union—but as a strength. Selling international achievements effectively to domestic audiences is crucial. Whether it involves showcasing foreign policy successes or framing international partnerships as sources of national pride, leaders need to reframe global dynamics as opportunities rather than threats. In 2025, the ability to integrate international narratives into domestic campaigns will be a defining skill for political leaders.
5. Inspiring Optimism and Unity
Above all, mainstream politicians must inspire optimism and foster unity. While politics often emphasizes rational arguments, its core lies in emotions and the ability to make people feel understood and hopeful. Politics must tell stories, provide meaning, and help people navigate the uncertainties of personal and communal life. This lesson is perhaps the most intuitive but also the hardest to implement. Inspirational leadership requires creativity, empathy, and a deep connection with the electorate—qualities that elevate electoral politics from mere strategy to an art form.
Take-away
The electoral lessons of 2024 highlight the complexities and challenges of contemporary democratic politics. As countries like Australia, Germany, Romania, and Poland prepare for critical elections in 2025, leaders committed to democratic values must adapt to a new political reality. By addressing anti-incumbency with authenticity, countering populism strategically, balancing economic and cultural concerns, reframing international politics, and inspiring optimism, they can navigate these challenges effectively. The stakes are high, but with the right approach, 2025 can be a year where democratic resilience prevails.
About the Author
Radu Magdin is a Romanian consultant and trainer, former Prime Ministerial adviser in Romania and Moldova. Radu is a co-facilitator at IAF's yearly Liberalism vs Populism program and a co-author of FNF's Playbook on Liberal Leadership and Strategic Communications in the Covid-19 Era.