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New Studies on Cuba and Nicaragua:

Are New Regime Change Scenarios on the Horizon?
4.0 Minutes
Friedrich-Naumann-Stiftung für die Freiheit
  freiheit.org
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Karte des Golfs von Mexiko 

© picture alliance / M.i.S. | Bernd Feil

Berlin – Following the arrest of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, international pressure on the authoritarian regimes in Havana and Managua is mounting. Against the backdrop of ongoing political, economic, and humanitarian crises, the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom has published two new strategy papers on possible political transitions in Cuba and Nicaragua.

The analyses show that both regimes continue to respond to increasing instability with repression. For Cuba, the scenario analysis points to clear indications of a regime change, as three out of four scenarios suggest a political upheaval. In Nicaragua, however, the situation is less clear-cut: Only two out of three scenarios point to a regime change, which is why a stabilization of the authoritarian status quo is currently the more likely outcome there.

In Cuba, approximately 1,260 political prisoners have been documented—the highest number since records began. In Nicaragua, the Ortega-Murillo regime has driven more than 800,000 people into exile and stripped opposition figures of their citizenship since 2018. At the same time, the country’s economic stability does not rest on industry or innovation, but largely stands on remittances from abroad, which are projected to account for around 30 percent of gross domestic product by 2025.

Against this backdrop, Dr. Maren Jasper-Winter, member of the Executive Board of the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom, states:

“We liberals stand firmly alongside civil society in Cuba and Nicaragua. The people there should be able to decide freely about their future. Europe must take a clear stand: end oppression, release political prisoners, and enable freedom. Solidarity is with the people, not with dictatorships.”

Reflecting on Germany’s history, she adds:

“In Berlin, we made history and proved that no wall, no unjust state, and no authoritarian regime lasts forever. Those who live in freedom must not turn a blind eye to oppression elsewhere.”

Felix Maradiaga, president of RELIAL, a former political prisoner, and author of the Nicaragua strategy paper, warns:

“The greatest short-term danger is not that the dictatorship will fall tomorrow. It lies in its end being delayed: that Ortega leaves, but the structures of control remain in place.”

Carolina Barrero, founding director of Ciudadanía y Libertad, Sakharov Fellow, and author of the Cuba paper, emphasizes:

“A window of opportunity for change guarantees neither democracy nor stability. Without the participation of civil society, transitions risk reproducing authoritarian systems in new forms.”

Both authors call for targeted sanctions against those responsible, a clear linking of international cooperation to reforms, and stronger mechanisms for addressing human rights violations.

 

The studies conclude that sustainable democratic change is only possible with a strong civil society. Transitions driven solely by the elite carry the risk of authoritarian continuity.

Dr. Maren Jasper-Winter comments:

“True change can only succeed if civil society plays a leading role and is not marginalized. A pseudo-transition would not represent progress but would breathe new life into authoritarian structures. We must not allow that to happen.”

Both studies can be downloaded for free here:

Cuba & Nicaragua

Cuba on the Threshold of Change: Collapse and Transition Scenarios

Cuba on the Threshold of Change: Collapse and Transition Scenarios

This report by Carolina Barrero explores the convergence of three major forces shaping Cuba in 2026: a severe humanitarian and economic collapse, unprecedented pressure from the United States, and increasing scrutiny from the European Union regarding its relationship with Havana. The author argues that Cuba is facing the most significant opportunity for political transformation in decades, but warns that such a moment does not automatically guarantee a democratic transition.



The analysis examines the structural causes of the crisis, including economic paralysis, deteriorating public services, widespread poverty, and escalating political repression. It highlights the central role of GAESA, the military-controlled business conglomerate that dominates much of the Cuban economy, and discusses how the interests of military and political elites may shape any future transition.



The report presents four possible scenarios for change: an elite-negotiated transition similar to developments observed in Venezuela; a gradual erosion of the regime through sustained internal and external pressure; institutional collapse driven by economic and social breakdown; and a scenario involving intensified international coercion and isolation. Each scenario is evaluated in terms of its likelihood and its implications for democracy.

A central argument of the report is that Cuban civil society must be treated as a strategic actor rather than a passive beneficiary of political change.

The author contends that any meaningful democratic transition requires the participation of independent civic organizations, the release of political prisoners, the dismantling of military-economic monopolies, and the establishment of transitional justice mechanisms.

The report concludes that while Cuba may be approaching a historic turning point, the outcome will depend largely on whether domestic democratic forces and international partners can ensure that political change results in genuine democratization rather than the preservation of authoritarian structures under new leadership

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Nicaragua’s Half-Open Window

Nicaragua’s Half-Open Window

Written by Félix Maradiaga, this policy paper explores Nicaragua’s political trajectory during what the author describes as a critical but uncertain window for democratic change. Despite economic growth fueled largely by remittances from exiled Nicaraguans, the country remains under an increasingly authoritarian system centered on Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo.

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