Brexit

Brexit: A Critical Audit in the Cold Light of Day

Brexit has been a decade-long process with lasting economic, social and governance effects on the UK and EU. While both sides have been negatively affected, the impact has been far greater on the UK and unevenly distributed across households, social groups and sectors.

Economically, Brexit weakened overall performance, public finances and trade, especially through new non-tariff barriers such as customs checks, product certification and veterinary controls, which hit smaller businesses hardest. Remittances to poorer EU member states were also affected.

Socially, migration patterns changed significantly. EU migration to the UK fell and later turned negative, while immigration from non-EU countries rose sharply after 2020. EU citizens in lower-paid jobs were particularly affected. Brexit also disrupted families, especially mixed EU-UK households, and created uncertainty over residence rights. Young people faced reduced mobility, higher university fees in the UK, and the loss of Erasmus opportunities.

Governance changes have been more limited than promised, with little major regulatory divergence so far, though future tensions remain likely. Northern Ireland became a major issue due to the de facto Irish Sea border, partly eased but not fully resolved by the Windsor Framework.

Overall, Brexit has most adversely affected small businesses, young people, migrants and poorer households. Some EU countries benefited by attracting investment and mobile workers. In the UK, public opinion has shifted toward “remain,” though rejoining the EU is unlikely. Both sides now increasingly recognise the need for a closer and more constructive relationship.