NEWSLETTER
From Poland with Love. May 2026
Topic of the Month
The Mystery of the 4,000, the 5,000 and SAFE Poland
Few stories have generated as much confusion in Poland's security debate this spring as the question of American troops. Within the space of a few weeks, Poles were told that 4,000 U.S. soldiers would not be coming to Poland, that the deployment had merely been delayed, that 5,000 troops were being withdrawn from Europe, and then that President Donald Trump had decided to send an additional 5,000 troops to Poland. The numbers changed, the explanations changed, and yet one thing remained constant: nobody seemed entirely sure what was actually happening.
The controversy began when reports emerged that the Pentagon had halted the planned deployment of approximately 4,000 soldiers from the U.S. Army's 2nd Armored Brigade Combat Team, a unit that had been preparing for a rotational deployment to Poland and other countries on NATO's eastern flank. The decision came amid a broader review of the American military presence in Europe and plans to reduce troop numbers on the continent. The announcement surprised not only Polish officials but also members of the U.S. Congress, including Republicans, who criticised the move as strategically damaging and politically tone-deaf at a time when Russia's war against Ukraine continues to reshape European security.
Warsaw responded quickly. The government sought to calm public concerns, stressing that there had been no decision to reduce the overall American military presence in Poland. Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz argued that the issue concerned a temporary suspension of one deployment cycle rather than a withdrawal of forces. Following talks with senior U.S. military officials, the government insisted that Poland remained a priority ally and that discussions about future deployments were continuing.
Then came Donald Trump. In a post on Truth Social, the U.S. president announced that America would send an additional 5,000 troops to Poland, explicitly linking the decision to the election of President Karol Nawrocki, whom Trump had endorsed. The message immediately generated headlines in both Poland and the United States. Supporters portrayed it as proof that Warsaw enjoyed a privileged relationship with the White House. Critics pointed out that the announcement appeared to contradict the Pentagon's own decisions from just days earlier.
The problem was that Trump's declaration did not answer the central question. Were these genuinely new troops? Were they simply the same 4,000 soldiers whose deployment had previously been suspended? Were they replacing forces withdrawn from Germany? Or was the announcement merely a political signal rather than an operational order? Even U.S. defence officials reportedly struggled to explain the practical implications of the president's statement. At the time, senior military officers were still publicly referring to a net reduction of approximately 5,000 troops in Europe.
The political reactions in Poland followed familiar lines. PiS welcomed Trump's statement as evidence that their political camp enjoys stronger relations with Washington. Supporters presented the announcement as a direct dividend of Nawrocki's victory and as confirmation that Poland's security is best served through close ties with the Trump administration. On the other side, government representatives focused on continuity, arguing that Poland's strategic importance stems from its geographic position, defence spending and role as NATO's eastern logistics hub rather than from personal relationships between politicians.
The uncertainty has also fuelled speculation abroad. If the United States ultimately reduces its military footprint in Europe, some analysts believe European NATO members could increase their own presence on the alliance's eastern flank. Germany has already expanded its military role in the region, while France, the United Kingdom and several Nordic countries have become increasingly active in collective defence initiatives. Whether this would translate into additional European troops in Poland remains unknown, but the debate reflects a broader concern that Europe may have to assume greater responsibility for its own security if Washington's commitment becomes less predictable.
SAFEr Poland
What began as a political dispute between the government and the president has evolved into one of the most significant defence financing initiatives in Europe. Poland is set to become the largest beneficiary of the European Union’s SAFE (Security Action for Europe) programme, securing approximately €43.7 billion in preferential loans for defence and security investments. The scale of the funding is unprecedented, but the road to accessing it was far from straightforward.
The controversy emerged when the government sought to establish a legal framework that would allow Poland to channel EU security funds into a broader range of projects, including civil protection and border-security measures. President Karol Nawrocki vetoed the legislation, arguing that the proposed solutions raised constitutional concerns and weakened oversight mechanisms. The veto created uncertainty around Poland’s ability to take full advantage of the new European financing instrument at a time when security issues dominated both national and European agendas (read more in the March issue).
Rather than reopening a lengthy legislative battle, the government opted for a different approach. It decided to rely on existing defence-financing structures, placing the Ministry of National Defence at the centre of the programme and using the Armed Forces Support Fund managed through state-owned BGK development bank as the primary vehicle for implementation. This solution allowed Tusk’s government to move ahead without waiting for new legislation and ensured that SAFE resources could begin flowing into priority projects.
The revised model also expanded the understanding of what qualifies as a security investment. While military modernisation remains the programme’s main objective, the government has emphasised that modern security extends well beyond tanks, missiles and ammunition. SAFE financing is therefore expected to support not only defence procurement but also civil protection capabilities, cybersecurity, critical infrastructure and projects that strengthen national resilience. By linking military and civilian security needs under a single financing framework, Poland has effectively created a broader national security investment programme.
The first results are already visible. Poland was the first EU member state to sign a financing agreement under SAFE, and initial contracts have begun to appear. Among the earliest projects are investments in cybersecurity systems, personal protection equipment, reconnaissance drones, loitering munitions and other capabilities considered essential in contemporary conflicts. Government officials have indicated that contracts worth tens of billions of zlotys could be signed during the first phase alone, accelerating procurement plans that would otherwise have taken years to complete.
The largest beneficiaries are expected to be domestic defence manufacturers and their extensive network of suppliers. The government estimates that thousands of Polish companies could ultimately participate in projects financed through SAFE, either directly or through supply chains. Producers of unmanned systems, electronics, communications equipment, IT solutions and military support technologies are particularly well positioned to benefit. The programme is therefore expected not only to strengthen national defence but also to provide a significant boost to industrial development and technological innovation.
The Ministry of National Defence is another major beneficiary, gaining access to long-term financing on conditions that are considerably more favourable than standard market borrowing. This creates additional fiscal space for military modernisation without placing immediate pressure on the state budget. At the same time, BGK development bank has emerged as a key institutional player by managing the financial architecture that allows SAFE resources to be deployed efficiently.
Politics
Andrzej Poczobut Finally Free!
The release of Andrzej Poczobut marks the end of one of the most symbolic political imprisonment cases in Eastern Europe, and a rare victory against the authoritarian system of Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko.
Poczobut, a journalist for Poland’s liberal daily Gazeta Wyborcza and a leading activist of the Polish minority in Belarus, was arrested in 2021 after covering anti-government protests and criticizing repression of the Minsk regime. He was later sentenced to eight years in a high-security penal colony on charges widely condemned by international organizations as politically motivated.
Over the years, Poczobut became a symbol of resistance against Lukashenko’s regime. Reports from human rights groups and international media described harsh prison conditions, prolonged isolation, deteriorating health, dramatic weight loss, and denial of proper medical treatment. Despite pressure, he reportedly refused to ask Lukashenko for clemency or admit guilt in exchange for freedom. Friends and supporters described him as “unbreakable.”
His release came as part of a complex multinational prisoner exchange brokered with strong involvement from the United States. The deal included prisoners from Belarus, Poland, Russia, Moldova, Romania, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine. Negotiations were reportedly led by U.S. envoy John Coale as part of broader talks with Minsk aimed at securing the release of political prisoners and slightly easing Belarus’s international isolation.
Prime Minister Donald Tusk later revealed that one of Poczobut’s first questions after crossing the border into freedom was whether he would someday be able to return to Belarus. Tusk described him as “unyielding,” emphasizing that despite years in prison, Poczobut still viewed Belarus as his home.
During his imprisonment, Poczobut received some of Europe’s highest human rights distinctions. In 2025, he was awarded the European Parliament’s Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought, honoring his defense of free speech and democratic values. European Parliament President Roberta Metsola called him “a symbol of the struggle for freedom and democracy.”
Kraków Mayor Out
Kraków has delivered one of the biggest political shocks in Poland this year. In a dramatic local referendum, voters removed Mayor Aleksander Miszalski from office less than two years after he won the city election, a result that is already sending tremors through national politics and raising uncomfortable questions for the Civic Coalition.
Miszalski entered office as one of the rising faces of KO’s younger generation of politicians. Before becoming mayor, he served as a member of parliament and built his image around modernization, environmental reform, and liberal urban governance. His 2024 victory over local opposition figure Łukasz Gibała was presented by Civic Coalition as the beginning of a new era for Kraków after more than two decades of rule by former mayor Jacek Majchrowski. At the time, the party celebrated the result as proof that Poland’s largest cities remained firmly behind pro-European, centrist politics.
The referendum campaign gained momentum only months after Miszalski took office. What initially looked like frustration over individual policies gradually turned into a broader revolt against the city administration itself. The central issue became Kraków’s planned Clean Transport Zone, which would have restricted older cars from entering large parts of the city. Supporters described the project as a necessary environmental reform aimed at reducing pollution and improving air quality. Opponents saw something very different: an expensive and elitist policy that disproportionately targeted ordinary residents, commuters, and lower-income drivers who could not easily replace their vehicles.
But transport policy alone does not explain the scale of the backlash. Critics increasingly accused the administration of arrogance, poor communication, and governing without listening to residents. Complaints about political favoritism and insider appointments began circulating widely, while many voters argued that the new authorities had simply continued unpopular practices associated with the previous political establishment. Over time, the referendum became less about one policy and more about a growing feeling that city hall was disconnected from everyday concerns.
The coalition behind the referendum reflected that frustration. Local activists and anti-establishment groups played a major role, but the campaign also received strong support from opposition voters connected to PiS, Confederation and far-left Together party. For many participants, the referendum became an opportunity not only to punish Miszalski, but also to send a message to the national government.
The referendum crossed the legal turnout threshold required for dismissal (ca. 30%), and more than 171,000 voters supported removing him from office, while only a few thousand voted to keep him. Miszalski’s political strategy ultimately failed. Rather than mobilizing supporters to defend him, he encouraged residents to boycott the referendum in the hope that turnout would remain below the legal threshold and invalidate the vote. I
Now Kraków faces a snap mayoral election that could reshape the city’s political future once again. The strongest potential candidate appears to be Łukasz Gibała, who narrowly lost the previous election and has spent years building a powerful local movement outside the major national parties. The referendum result dramatically strengthens his position and gives anti-establishment politics new momentum in the city. KO will almost certainly try to retain control of Kraków, but the party now faces a difficult dilemma: whether to defend its existing political direction or present a more pragmatic and less polarizing alternative.
The consequences extend far beyond municipal politics. Kraków has long been considered one of Poland’s most important liberal strongholds, making the defeat especially damaging for Donald Tusk’s political camp. For the opposition, the referendum is proof that even major-city liberal administrations are vulnerable when voters feel ignored or economically pressured. For KO, the result is a warning that ambitious environmental and transport reforms can quickly become politically explosive if they are perceived as unfair or disconnected from daily life.
More broadly, the referendum may become a turning point in Polish urban politics. Opposition parties are already studying the Kraków campaign closely as a possible model for future local mobilization. The vote demonstrated that anti-establishment sentiment is no longer confined to smaller towns or conservative regions. For Donald Tusk’s government, the message from Kraków is difficult to ignore. Urban voters may still support liberal politics in principle, but they are increasingly impatient with policies they see as costly, ideological, or disconnected from practical concerns. In that sense, the referendum was not only about one mayor. It became a warning about the growing fragility of political trust in Poland’s biggest cities.
Breakthrough Decision for Same-Sex Couples
After years of political hesitation, legal battles, and failed legislative promises, Poland’s government has finally moved to recognize same-sex marriages concluded abroad, a decision driven less by parliament than by strategic litigation and mounting pressure from European and Polish courts.
The breakthrough came after a long legal campaign led by same-sex couples who challenged the Polish state’s refusal to transcribe foreign marriage certificates into the national civil registry. One key case involved a Polish couple married in Germany in 2018 whose application was repeatedly rejected by Polish authorities. The dispute eventually reached the Court of Justice of the European Union after Poland’s Supreme Administrative Court (NSA) referred preliminary questions to Luxembourg. In late 2025, the CJEU ruled that refusing recognition of marriages legally concluded in another EU member state violated European law. In March 2026, the NSA confirmed that interpretation and ordered Polish authorities to recognize the marriage.
The decision exposed the political paralysis inside the current coalition. Since returning to power in 2023, the government repeatedly promised progress on LGBTQ rights, including civil partnerships, but reforms stalled because of resistance from the conservative PSL wing of the coalition and the expectation of a presidential veto from President Karol Nawrocki. This resulted in frustration among liberal voters.
What changed was not parliamentary arithmetic, but the legal reality created by the courts. Faced with binding rulings from both the CJEU and the NSA, Tusk ultimately decided that the government could no longer delay implementation. During a cabinet meeting, he publicly apologized to same-sex couples for the “years of rejection and humiliation” they experienced in Poland and framed the issue not as ideology, but as rule of law and human dignity. He stressed that court rulings had to be respected regardless of personal or political beliefs.
The government then moved quickly. Interior Minister Marcin Kierwiński and Digital Affairs Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski announced a new administrative solution that avoids reopening the politically explosive debate over legalizing same-sex marriage itself. Instead, the state changed the technical structure of civil registry forms. Previously, marriage documents only allowed categories labeled “man” and “woman.” Under the new system, both sections are replaced with gender-neutral “man/woman” fields, allowing registry offices to transcribe same-sex marriages performed abroad into the Polish system.
The change may appear bureaucratic, but politically it represents one of the most significant advances in LGBTQ recognition in modern Polish history. Warsaw quickly registered the country’s first officially transcribed same-sex marriage after the rulings took effect, with Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski declaring that the capital would proactively recognize other marriages concluded elsewhere in the EU.
At the same time, the government carefully emphasized the limits of the reform. Tusk repeatedly stated that recognizing foreign marriages does not mean legalizing same-sex marriage in Poland and does not open the door to adoption rights.
Nawrocki’s Climate Referendum
President Karol Nawrocki has sparked controversy with his proposal for a national referendum on European Union climate policy, a move critics describe as politically manipulative and designed to fuel anti-EU sentiment ahead of the next parliamentary campaign.
The proposed referendum question asks Poles whether they support “the implementation of climate policy that has led to rising living costs, energy prices, and the costs of doing business and farming.” Opponents argue that the wording is intentionally biased, presenting EU climate policy exclusively through its economic costs while ignoring its environmental and long-term energy security goals.
Legal experts and opposition politicians accused the president of turning a complex policy debate into a political slogan. The Senate, where the governing coalition holds a majority, rejected the proposal after several joint committees concluded that the referendum question was misleading and framed in a way intended to predetermine the public response. Senate’s confirmation is necessary for presidential referendum initiatives.
The debate unfolded alongside a large right-wing protest in Warsaw organized by the Solidarność trade union. Thousands of demonstrators marched through the capital opposing the EU’s Green Deal, the ETS emissions trading system, the EU-Mercosur trade agreement, and migration policy. The protest drew a broad alliance of right and far-right forces, from PiS to Confederation.
PiS prime minister candidate Przemysław Czarnek claimed during the demonstration that EU climate policy was leading to the “deindustrialization of Poland” and soaring energy prices. “The Green Deal will destroy us,” he told supporters, arguing that Poland needed a plan to exit the ETS system and drastically reduce electricity and heating costs. Speakers linked the climate debate directly to questions of national sovereignty and economic independence.
Critics, however, say the referendum proposal oversimplified a highly complex issue and deliberately ignored the costs Poland could face from climate inaction, dependence on fossil fuels, and delayed modernization of the energy sector. They also warned that the campaign risks importing the style of culture-war politics increasingly seen elsewhere in Europe and the United States, where climate policy is framed less as a technical challenge and more as a tool for political mobilization.
The failed referendum initiative nevertheless signals that opposition to the EU Green Deal, ETS, and broader European climate policy is likely to become one of the central themes of Poland’s political debate in the run-up to the 2027 parliamentary elections.
European Affairs
Magyar in Poland
When Péter Magyar chose Poland for his first foreign visit as Hungary’s new prime minister, the symbolism was impossible to miss. Only weeks after defeating Viktor Orbán and ending the Fidesz rule, Magyar arrived in Kraków carrying a political message that extended far beyond bilateral relations. The trip was designed as a declaration that Hungary was turning back toward the European mainstream, and that Poland under Donald Tusk had become the model.
The parallels between the two countries are striking. Both Poland under PiS and Hungary under Orbán spent years in conflict with Brussels over judicial independence, media freedom, and rule-of-law concerns. In both cases, billions in EU funds were frozen. Tusk’s government managed to partially normalize relations with the EU after returning to power, something Magyar openly says he hopes to replicate in Hungary. During the visit, he repeatedly stressed that Poland could serve as an example for rebuilding institutions and restoring European credibility.
The political subtext of the visit was equally important because of the long alliance between PiS and Orbán. For years, Jarosław Kaczyński and Viktor Orbán were seen as the two pillars of Central Europe’s nationalist and eurosceptic bloc. PiS often defended Hungary inside the EU, while Orbán supported Poland during disputes with Brussels. That alliance collapsed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when Warsaw and Budapest split sharply over relations with Moscow. Magyar’s arrival in Poland therefore represented not only a diplomatic reset, but also a symbolic break with the Orbán–PiS era.
The visit itself was carefully staged to emphasize closeness with Poland and admiration for its post-communist transformation. Magyar began in Kraków rather than Warsaw, calling it a personal decision and framing the trip as a return to traditional Polish-Hungarian friendship. He met Cardinal Grzegorz Ryś at Wawel Cathedral and repeatedly referenced the historical ties between the two countries. He praised Poland’s economic development and openly contrasted it with Hungary’s stagnation under Orbán. “Poland is light years ahead of us” in some sectors, he admitted before the trip.
One of the most widely discussed moments came when Magyar traveled by train from Kraków to Warsaw, deliberately highlighting infrastructure financed with EU funds. He joked about riding on railways built with money from “evil Brussels,” mocking Orbán’s anti-EU rhetoric while simultaneously praising Poland’s modernization. The train journey became a political metaphor in itself: Poland as a country that successfully used European integration for development, and Hungary as a country that now wants to catch up again.
The delegation accompanying Magyar also underlined the strategic significance of the visit. Six ministers traveled with him, including officials responsible for foreign affairs, transport, defense, culture, and the economy. In Warsaw he met Donald Tusk, President Karol Nawrocki, parliamentary leaders, and later traveled to Gdańsk to meet Lech Wałęsa, another gesture loaded with symbolism.
One particularly sensitive issue hanging over the visit was the case of former Polish justice minister Zbigniew Ziobro, who had found protection in Hungary during growing legal pressure in Poland. Magyar signaled willingness to cooperate more closely with Warsaw on issues connected to corruption investigations and rule-of-law disputes.
For Tusk, the visit was equally valuable politically. The Polish prime minister openly celebrated Magyar’s election victory as proof that CEE could move away from nationalist populism and return to liberal democratic politics. The two leaders now appear to see themselves as partners in reshaping the political balance inside the EU and rebuilding regional cooperation after years of division.
International Affairs
Poland’s New Georgian-Language TV Project Sparks Political Storm in Tbilisi
A new Georgian-language news service backed by Poland has triggered sharp criticism from Georgian authorities, highlighting growing tensions over media influence and the country’s political direction.
The program, VT Sakartvelo News, launched by Polish public broadcaster TVP with support from Poland’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, began broadcasting on April 27. Produced by Georgian journalists, the short daily news format aims to provide independent reporting and broader coverage of European affairs for Georgian audiences.
Polish organizers say the project is designed to promote balanced journalism and counter disinformation in the region. “We want to tell the truth, including about what the European Union is doing for Georgia and what could otherwise remain untold,” said editor Rati Mujiri in comments cited by TVP.
The reaction from Georgia’s ruling authorities, however, has been unusually fierce. Parliamentary Speaker Shalva Papuashvili compared the new broadcaster to Rwanda’s infamous “Radio Mille Collines,” which was used to spread hate propaganda before the 1994 genocide. “This is an analogy to the so-called Radio of a Thousand Hills, created in Rwanda to spread hostility and hatred in society,” Papuashvili said during a public appearance. Tbilisi Mayor Kakha Kaladze also accused foreign actors of attempting to destabilize the country. “We will not allow anyone, through external interference and financing, to organize confrontation, a coup, or a revolution in this country,” he stated.
Journalists involved in the project say Georgian officials have refused to cooperate with the new outlet, while some pro-government politicians have labeled it “a tool of hybrid warfare.”
The controversy reflects Georgia’s increasingly polarized political climate and the broader struggle over media influence in the South Caucasus. Similar Polish-backed media initiatives have already been launched in Armenia and Moldova as part of wider efforts to support independent journalism and strengthen ties with countries seeking closer relations with the European Union.
Culture
Best Director in Cannes
Polish director Paweł Pawlikowski returned to the Cannes spotlight this year with Fatherland (“Ojczyzna”), his first feature since the Oscar-nominated Cold War. The film premiered in the main competition at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival and quickly emerged as one of the most discussed European titles of the event.
Set in postwar Germany, Fatherland follows writer Thomas Mann as he returns to a divided Germany in 1949 alongside his daughter Erika. Critics praised the film’s austere visual style, emotional precision, and political undertones, with several reviewers describing it as one of Pawlikowski’s most personal works.
The Cannes premiere received enthusiastic reactions, including several minutes of standing ovation at the Grand Théâtre Lumière. International critics highlighted the performances of Hanns Zischler and Sandra Hüller, while many commentators framed the film as a meditation on exile, identity, and Europe’s ideological fractures.
Pawlikowski ultimately shared the festival’s Best Director award for Fatherland, marking another major Cannes success after winning Best Director in 2018 for Cold War. The top Palme d’Or prize went to Romanian filmmaker Cristian Mungiu for Fjord.
For Poland’s film industry, the reception of Fatherland confirmed Pawlikowski’s status as one of Europe’s most influential contemporary auteurs and reestablished his position at the center of the international festival circuit after an eight-year break from feature filmmaking.
Gdynia’s Most Famous Villain?
What do James Bond, a white Persian cat, and the Baltic coast have in common? The answer is Ernst Stavro Blofeld, the legendary Bond villain whom Ian Fleming described as having been born in Gdynia.
That unlikely connection has inspired a new cultural project: a monumental bronze statue of Blofeld overlooking the city’s waterfront. Created by sculptor Professor Wojciech Sęczawa, the work depicts the SPECTRE mastermind alongside his trademark white cat. A model of the sculpture was unveiled this spring, with supporters now raising funds to cast the final version in bronze.
While Blofeld is fictional, his link to Gdynia has captured the imagination of Bond fans for decades. The planned statue has already attracted attention both in Poland and abroad, turning an obscure literary detail into a distinctive part of the city’s identity.
More than a tribute to a famous villain, the project reflects Gdynia’s creative spirit and willingness to celebrate unexpected stories. If completed, the sculpture could become one of the city’s most unusual landmarks—and perhaps the only place in the world where visitors can take a selfie with James Bond’s greatest enemy.
Poland & Germany
One of Europe’s Longest Rail Connection
Europe’s rail revival is accelerating, and Poland is becoming one of its key hubs. This month, Czech operator Leo Express will launch a new 1,300-kilometre direct connection linking Przemyśl in southeastern Poland with Frankfurt am Main in Germany via Kraków, Prague, Dresden and Leipzig. The 18-hour journey will become one of the longest direct rail routes in Europe and another sign that international rail travel in Central Europe is entering a new era.
The route is particularly significant because Przemyśl, located near the Ukrainian border, has become one of Europe’s most important railway gateways since 2022. Leo Express says the new service is designed to better connect Eastern and Western Europe while offering a sustainable alternative to short-haul flights.
The announcement comes amid record growth for rail travel in Poland. PKP Intercity has reported historic passenger numbers in recent years, while the country is rapidly expanding its international network. One of the strongest symbols of this trend was the launch of the direct Poland–Croatia service, which is expected to become a year-round connection after strong demand during its seasonal operations.
Together, these developments reflect a broader transformation of European mobility. Long-distance rail — once seen as slow and outdated — is increasingly becoming a competitive, comfortable and climate-friendly alternative for travel across the continent.
For Poland, the new Leo Express connection is another sign that the country is emerging as a strategic crossroads for European rail transport.
Polls & Trends
Party Support
Pollster for Super Express, 28-29.05.26
Civic Coalition 32,98%
PiS 22,66%
Confederation 13,29%
Left 7,76%
Crown 7,03%
Together 4,98%
PSL 4,25%
Poland 2050 2,71%