Geopolitics

Navigating the new world order

An amazing week in Nairobi has just come to a close, and back in my hometown of Münster, Germany, I am instantly greeted by considerably less pleasant weather. However, the past few days have left me with more than just a longing for sunshine. They have given me plenty to reflect on regarding the world we live in and the challenges that lie ahead.

As the FNF Naumann Academy of Politics, held under the theme “Navigating the New World Order: Liberal Grand Strategy in the Age of Geopolitics”, demonstrated, the international order we have grown accustomed to over the past decades is under increasing pressure. A rising China seeking to expand its global influence through initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a United States increasingly shifting its strategic focus away from transatlantic cooperation, and Russia continuing its war of aggression against Ukraine are just some of the developments reshaping our geopolitical environment.

These simultaneous crises raise a fundamental question: What should a new grand strategy for liberal democracies look like?

Throughout the week, we explored this question with experts and participants from Latin America, Europe, Africa, and Asia. Our discussions revealed not only the complexities of the challenges we face but also how differently they are perceived across regions. Learning about the political climate in other countries and exchanging perspectives with fellow liberals from around the world was among the most valuable aspects of the Academy.

One particularly striking takeaway was the sheer extent of China's global economic engagement. Seeing Chinese investment firsthand in Nairobi's infrastructure, from bridges to residential developments, illustrated how economic capabilities can translate into geopolitical influence. At the same time, the discussions highlighted the tremendous potential of African countries as partners in shaping the emerging international order.

What, then, should liberal democracies do?

First, we must strengthen our capacity for independent action. This includes investing in defense capabilities to preserve territorial integrity and prevent external domination, while maintaining the internal cohesion necessary for effective strategic decision-making. Equally important are technological innovation, economic competitiveness, and diversifying dependencies, particularly in critical areas such as energy.

Yet a renewed focus on hard power must not come at the expense of our existing strengths. The European Union's economic weight remains a formidable geopolitical instrument, complemented by its considerable soft power, including its world-class educational institutions and international partnerships.

Above all, liberal democracies must recognise that they cannot navigate this increasingly complex world alone. As Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney alluded to in his recent speech before the European Parliament, “We are currently living in a storm.” Yet, as he further argued, “in this storm, a single tree will come down in it. A forest will not.” This analogy perfectly captures one of my central takeaways from the Academy: In an increasingly fragmented world, liberal democracies must stand together. International cooperation is not merely a reflection of shared values but a strategic necessity if we want to preserve our ability to shape the emerging world order.

Returning from Nairobi, I am left with a deeper appreciation of the complexity of today's geopolitical challenges, but also with renewed conviction about the importance of international liberal cooperation.

The task ahead is clear: Liberal democracies, and the European Union in particular, need a coherent strategic vision that combines the ability to act independently with the willingness to cooperate internationally.

The emerging world order is not yet set in stone. But if we want to help shape it, rather than simply adapt to it, we must act now.