What's Going on in Germany?
Saxony-Anhalt Election
What happened?
In one of Germany's federal states – Saxony-Anhalt – a new state parliament was elected last weekend. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) received 43.8 percent of the vote. The conservative CDU, which has governed the state since 2002 – for 24 years – recorded a historically poor result of 17.2 percent. In the previous state election in 2021, it had still received 37.1 percent. The FDP also suffered significant losses, receiving just 2.6 percent. The Left Party received 8.6 percent. By contrast, the Greens made gains with 8.9 percent, as did the SPD with 9.3 percent. The Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), contesting a state election in Saxony-Anhalt for the first time, received 5.3 percent and thus narrowly enters the state parliament. As in federal elections, a five-percent threshold generally applies to state elections in Saxony-Anhalt.
The election result now means:
The AfD is far ahead of all the other parties but does not have an absolute majority. It is by far the strongest party, but without support from at least one other parliamentary group it cannot form a parliamentary majority of its own. In a parliamentary democracy, being the largest party does not automatically confer a right to govern.
The CDU, SPD, Greens and Left Party rule out a governing coalition with the AfD. The BSW has also currently ruled out a coalition with the AfD, but is more open to issue-by-issue cooperation than the other parties and does not object to talks with the AfD. At the same time, the other parties have difficulties forming a majority coalition without the AfD as well; they would need a five-party coalition, which is deemed not workable in reality.
If the AfD cannot find a coalition partner, another party could try to form a government. One possible outcome would be a CDU-led minority government, which would need support from other parties to pass legislation. In the first two rounds of voting for Minister-President, a candidate needs an absolute majority in parliament. If both rounds fail, parliament first votes on whether to end the legislative term early, which could lead to new elections. If parliament decides against this, another vote for Minister-President is held in which a simple majority of the votes cast is sufficient. This means that, in theory, the AfD could also form a minority government if enough MPs from other parties abstain.
What happened to the FDP?
The result in Saxony-Anhalt marks a painful setback not only for the CDU, but also for the Liberals. Since 2021, the FDP had been part of Saxony-Anhalt's governing coalition alongside the CDU and SPD. But with just 2.6 percent of the vote, the FDP failed to clear the five-percent threshold and will no longer be represented in the state parliament. The FDP's lead candidate Lydia Hüskens, who has served as Saxony-Anhalt's Minister for Infrastructure and Digital Affairs and as Deputy Minister-President, has announced that she will step down as state chair of the FDP.
FDP leader Wolfgang Kubicki also sees the result as a sign of deeper dissatisfaction with established politics. While campaigning, he encountered voters who deliberately wanted to send a protest message: "People repeatedly told me: The FDP needs seven or eight percent, but this time we're voting AfD because things need to go bang."
Why is this considered a turning point in German politics?
It is the highest result of AfD in a vote in Germany on state level thus far. And the case for Saxony-Anhalt is particular: In 2023, Saxony-Anhalt's state domestic intelligence service classified the AfD's state branch, following a multi-year review, as a "confirmed right-wing extremist endeavour" ("gesichert rechtsextremistische Bestrebung"). According to the authority, activities of the state branch are directed against core principles of Germany's free democratic basic order.
Among the reasons given is the following: according to the domestic intelligence service, the state branch advocates a "völkisch, ancestry-based concept of the people". This means that being German is defined not solely through citizenship and membership of the political community, but to a significant extent through ethnic or cultural ancestry. The domestic intelligence service cites, for example, AfD officials referring to German citizens with a migration background as "passport Germans" ("Passdeutsche"). Migrants have also been described as "invaders", "intruders" or "culturally alien welfare migrants". The domestic intelligence service considers this to conflict with the guarantee of human dignity under Article 1 of Germany's Basic Law.
The domestic intelligence service also points, for example, to links between party officials and elected representatives and various parts of the right-wing extremist spectrum.
However, the domestic intelligence service cannot ban a political party. Only the Federal Constitutional Court can impose a party ban, and the legal requirements for doing so are considerably higher. A party can therefore be classified as confirmed right-wing extremist while still legally participating in elections.
Who voted for the AfD?
"Anything is possible" ("Alles ist möglich") was the central slogan of the AfD campaign around Siegmund in Saxony-Anhalt. During the campaign, he strongly cultivated the image of a young East German from the region and adopted a comparatively moderate tone. Nevertheless, migration was also highly prominent in his campaign: "Deportations from minute one" ("Abschieben ab Minute eins") appeared, for example, on campaign posters. According to a MIDEM survey, during the election campaign in Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD clearly dominated the issue of migration and integration, dedicating 18.2% of its election programme to the topic. It makes 86 related campaign promises – with none aimed at liberalising migration or integration policy.
According to data from ARD/Infratest dimap, internal security and immigration were particularly important voting motives for AfD voters. Ninety-one percent of them agreed with the statement that they were concerned that "there are now so many foreign people living in Germany". Eighty-five percent agreed that "the way of life in Germany is changing too much".
At the same time, the share of foreign nationals in Saxony-Anhalt, at 7.9 percent, is only about half the national average of 14.9 percent. There is a second paradox: Saxony-Anhalt needs immigration because of its demographic development. According to Germany's Federal Employment Agency, foreign workers help to stabilise Saxony-Anhalt's labour market.
Federal politics also played a significant role according to post-election surveys: 59 percent of all respondents told Infratest dimap that the federal government deserved a "warning shot" at the Saxony-Anhalt state election. Among AfD voters, the figure was 89 percent.
What does this mean for Chancellor Friedrich Merz?
Merz and his government are under significant political pressure following the result. For the time being, he is not expected to step down though. As of now it remains uncertain what government will ultimately emerge in Saxony-Anhalt and how profoundly this shift will affect Germany's party system as a whole. What is clear is that the election result has fundamentally changed the political balance of power in Saxony-Anhalt and triggered a nationwide debate about how to deal with the AfD, possible models for forming a government, and the strategies of the established parties.