Infographics - Electoral Lists: What do the numbers really mean?
One possible explanation for this upsurge in the number of lists from 999 in 2018 to 1043 in 2022 was PM Saad Hariri and Future Movement's withdrawal from the elections, which increased the competition in districts with large Sunni majorities or pluralities, encouraging more candidates to run. Indeed, there was a sizeable Sunni majority or plurality in four out of the six districts with +3 lists. (Bekaa II has a 48% Sunni majority, North II is at 88%, and South one is at 47%.) Moreover, in Tripoli and Beirut, two additional lists were formed that included ex-Future Movement candidates, increasing the list number overall. However, there was no significant increase in the number of Sunni candidates in these districts. It is a very interesting dynamic that warrants further research.
In terms of electoral lists, 103 lists were registered among the different governorates. One possible explanation for the upsurge in the number of lists is that PM Saad Hariri and Future Movement's withdrawal from the elections increased the competitivity of the districts with large Sunni majorities or pluralities, encouraging more candidates to run. Most districts witnessed the registration of 1 to 3 additional lists to the 2018 total, with only one district, South III, bucking the trend and dropping from 6 registered lists in 2018 to 3 in 2022
Opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut.
About the Electoral Lab
The Electoral Lab is a new research initiative launched by the AUB Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs (IFI) with the support of the Friedrich Naumann Foundation (FNF) Lebanon. The lab aims to raise awareness about political discourse around elections both in content and form in Lebanon and the region. It seeks to highlight important thematical subjects that are rarely discussed during the electoral cycle and increasing public awareness of the importance of public data, especially electoral results. This initiative focuses on three main themes: conversation and dialogue with different political stakeholders, deep thematical analysis, and spreading awareness and availability of open electoral data.